Ghana’s decision to exit the International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme ahead of schedule is more about appearances than real impact, according to Bright Simons, Vice President of policy think tank IMANI Africa.
Speaking on Joy News’ PM Express Business Edition on April 24, Simons dismissed the move as a “political strategy masquerading as economic management.”
“The IMF will do a victory lap dance, the government will join them. And then we will conclude by 2028, we will not be able to meet those targets,” he cautioned.
“But then by that time, we’re not in the program.”
Simons believes that by ending the programme early, the government is showing it isn’t truly committed to meeting the targets it agreed to under the deal.
“The question then becomes, do we need the program to get to the targets? Because the targets are still relevant,” he asked.
“I think at that time, the targets will not be relevant. They will not be relevant anymore.”
He criticised both the government and the IMF for focusing more on image than actual accountability.
“They’ve elevated the signalling above the facts,” he said. “And the government will take advantage of it.”
Simons argued that staying in the programme longer would have helped Ghana stick to the reforms needed between 2026 and 2028.
“If the IMF itself really wanted us to get to those targets, it should have encouraged the government when the government said we wanted to extend,” he noted.
“Because that is when it could have ensured that from 2026 to 2028, there are program levers that deliver those targets.”
Now that Ghana is leaving the programme, Simons says the government will likely look for financing elsewhere.
“They have more flexibility to decide what to do,” he said.
“If they don’t do the IMF program because they think they can get market access, which I think by that time they will get, then the IMF targets, the 70, 55% debt-to-GDP and those things, will not matter.”
He cited examples from other African countries to show what Ghana might be planning.
“Kenya decided to terminate the program early and go borrow money from the Gulf — they got about $1.5 billion,” he said.
“Nigeria decided not to go for an IMF program at all.”
But he questioned whether Ghana has the political will or strong institutions to successfully reform on its own.
“It’s an irrelevant discussion if you’re not serious about hitting the targets. What matters is: are you reforming? And we don’t see that hunger.”
He stressed that although the IMF programme doesn’t offer large sums of money compared to open market borrowing, its real value lies in enforcing discipline.
“The fact that the IMF program doesn’t bring a lot of money is beside the point. It forces governments to make tough choices. That’s where its strength lies.”
Simons ended with a strong warning:
“This is politics over purpose. And we’ve seen how that movie ends before.”
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