The latest report from the World Bank has forecast a possible surge in fertiliser prices, citing energy market shocks, geopolitical tensions, and natural gas dependency in fertiliser production.
This prediction was contained in the April 2026 edition of the World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook, which mentioned the potential surge in prices of fertilisers, which could lead to increased food production costs and heighten food inflation risks in Sub-Saharan Africa, including Ghana.
The report projected a 30.7 percent increase this year, 2026, with an expected decrease next year, 2027, as supply conditions improve.
Fertiliser prices could significantly increase production costs for farmers globally, the report said. In sub-Saharan Africa, farmers are mostly dependent on fertilisers for crop yield and to increase food supply.
A hike in the price of the commodity will affect farmers’ ability to purchase adequate inputs for farming.
For countries such as Ghana, which depend largely on imported fertiliser to support agricultural production, the projected increase could place additional pressure on food prices and household spending.
The World Bank notes that although fertiliser prices are expected to decline in 2027, the near-term increase could still contribute to higher food inflation and food security concerns, particularly in low-income economies across Africa.
In the same report, the World Bank warned that Ghana and other growing economies’ inflation will see a sharp increase in 2026, linked to higher global energy prices and supply disruptions caused largely by the Middle East tensions.
According to the report, “Consumer price inflation in emerging markets and developing economies is projected to rise to about 5.1 percent in 2026, reversing earlier expectations that inflation would ease this year.”
Due to the Middle East tensions leading to shortfalls in both oil and gas supplies, this tends to largely affect prices of several other commodities, including food, fertilisers and metals. Citing the huge surge in Brent oil prices, which crossed $100 per barrel from about $65–$86 per barrel, marking an increase of nearly 20%, this has impacted the market, which is likely going to put pressure on households of a growing economy.
“With both oil and natural gas prices having soared amid supply shortfalls, average energy prices are forecast to increase by 24 percent in 2026. The Brent oil price is expected to average $86 per barrel, an upward revision of $26 since January. However, the supply shocks brought about by the war are broad-based. Prices for fertilisers are projected to soar, and prices of food commodities and base metals are also projected to increase”, parts of the report said.
The report also noted that average base metals like copper and gold are expected to record their highest price ever, with projections that they could rise even more than expected, rather than fall.
“Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs. Risks to the commodity price projections are tilted firmly toward higher prices”, a citation of the report indicated.
Under a scenario where oil prices rise sharply due to prolonged geopolitical tensions, inflation in emerging economies could climb to between 5.3 and 5.8 percent in 2026.
Average base metals and precious metals prices are both projected to reach all-time highs.
Higher energy costs are expected to slow real income growth and weaken consumer demand in many emerging economies, while also raising operational costs for businesses.
The World Bank notes that central banks in many developing economies may respond to rising inflation by maintaining tighter monetary policy, which could further affect borrowing costs and investment activity.
The outlook highlights the vulnerability of emerging markets to global commodity shocks, particularly for economies that rely heavily on energy imports.
