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Tag: global trade

  • Global trade sees positive turn in first quarter of 2024 – UNCTAD

    Global trade sees positive turn in first quarter of 2024 – UNCTAD

    Global trade trends showed improvement in the first quarter of 2024, with the value of goods trade rising approximately 1% quarter-over-quarter and services trade increasing by about 1.5%.

    This upturn, driven by favorable trade conditions in the United States and developing nations, especially major Asian economies, is projected to contribute roughly $250 billion to goods trade and $100 billion to services trade in the first half of 2024 compared to the second half of 2023.

    Global GDP growth forecasts for 2024 remain steady around 3%, with a cautiously optimistic outlook for short-term trade developments. If current positive trends continue, global trade volumes in 2024 could approach nearly $32 trillion, although they are unlikely to surpass the record levels seen in 2022.

    China, India and the US drive global trade

    Global trade growth in the first quarter of 2024 was primarily driven by increased exports from China (9%), India (7%) and the US (3%). Conversely, Europe’s exports showed no growth and Africa’s exports decreased by 5%.

    South-South trade sets the pace

    Trade in developing countries and South-South trade increased by about 2% in both imports and exports during the first quarter. In comparison, developed countries saw flat imports and a modest 1% rise in exports.

    On an annual basis, however, South-South trade fell by 5% when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to the first quarter of 2024.

    Green energy and AI sectors see strong surge

    Trade growth varied significantly across sectors, with green energy and AI-related products experiencing stronger increases.

    The trade value of high-performance servers rose by 25% compared to the first quarter of 2023, while other computers and storage units saw an 8% increase. The trade value of electric vehicles also grew significantly, increasing by about 25%.

    Positive outlook tempered by geopolitical and policy challenges

    Despite these positive trends, the outlook for 2024 is tempered by potential geopolitical issues and industrial policy impacts. Geopolitical tensions, rising shipping costs, and emerging industrial policies could reshape global trade patterns.

    The report warns that an increasing focus on domestic industries and trade restrictions could hinder international trade growth.

  • VIDEO: Singaporean exposes how her country allegedly exploits Ghana, Nigeria other nations

    VIDEO: Singaporean exposes how her country allegedly exploits Ghana, Nigeria other nations

    In a shocking revelation that has sent shockwaves through social media, a viral video has emerged of a woman claiming to be from Singapore, exposing the purported exploitative trade practices her country engages in with certain African and Asian nations.

    The unidentified woman claims that Singapore, lacking natural resources of its own, imports crucial raw materials such as crude oil from Nigeria and water from Malaysia. These imported resources are then processed and refined in Singapore before being sold back to the very countries from which they were sourced.

    In her own words, she states, “One of our main resources is oil. We’re the largest oil refinery in the world. So we buy oil from Nigeria and we refine them and we sell it back to Nigeria. So you know, that’s basically what we do. So we’re one of the largest oil refineries. Right? Because we have no natural resources whatsoever. You know, if somebody tells us, we even buy our water, we buy water from Malaysia, we buy crude water from Malaysia, we desalinate them, we purify it and we sell it back to Malaysia. Don’t judge us, we need to make some money somehow.”

    The video has sparked intense debates and discussions about international trade dynamics and economic strategies.

    She then extended her claims the automotive industry in Singapore. According to her, cars in the country have a strict lifespan of 10 years, after which they are either scrapped or sold to countries like Indonesia, Ghana, and Nigeria.

    These cars are then reportedly modified to fit the driving conditions and regulations of the respective countries and resold at premium prices.

    “So you know, our car, all our cars have a lifespan of 10 years. After that, we either scrap it or we resell it. We sell it to places like Indonesia, Ghana, we sell it to Nigeria, and all this. So these are the people that will come and buy our 10 year car. What they do is, they modify it. You drive on the left hand, right? Right, so but ours is on the right hand. So they purchase this 10 year car, right? With a lifespan of 10 years, they buy this car and they modify it and they sell it super expensive in your country,” she explained.

    The authenticity of the video, where it was recored and its content has not been verified yet, but it has generated a lot of reactions online.

    Some people have condemned Singapore for exploiting other countries and taking advantage of their resources and markets.

    Others have questioned the credibility of the woman and her claims and accused her of spreading false information and propaganda.

    Some have also expressed their disappointment and anger at their own governments for allowing such practices to happen and for not protecting their interests and sovereignty.

  • Coronavirus: ‘Drop in global trade to be worse than 2008 crisis’

    The World Trade Organization (WTO) is predicting a severe decline in international commerce this year.

    The wide range of possibilities reflects the uncertainties about the health crisis.

    It says the impact on trade is likely to exceed the slump caused by the financial crisis just over a decade ago.

    The WTO’s director general Roberto Azevedo described the figures as “ugly”.

    “There is no getting round that”, he said. He said the situation was first and foremost a health crisis and he acknowledged that governments had to take steps to protect people’s lives.

    “The unavoidable declines in trade and output will have painful consequences for households and businesses, on top of the human suffering caused by the disease itself,” he added.

    Relatively optimistic A decline of 13% in trade in goods is described in the report as a relatively optimistic scenario. It reflects a steep drop in trade followed by a recovery starting in the second half of 2020.

    That of course would need to be based on substantial progress over the next few months in getting on top of the health crisis.

    That is obviously not guaranteed, so the report includes a much more pessimistic case which reflects a steeper initial decline and a more prolonged and incomplete recovery.

    The report also warns that “the extent of uncertainty is very high, and it is well within the realm of possibilities that for both 2020 and 2021 the outcomes could be above or below these results”.

    The report says that the growth in global trade had already stalled towards the end of last year. By the final quarter of 2019 goods trade was 1% lower than a year earlier.

    The WTO says this was the result of “persistent trade tensions”, a reference that to a large extent reflects the confrontational approach to international commerce taken by the administration of President Donald Trump.

    Mr Azevedo said trade would be an important ingredient in the economic recovery after the crisis. He said keeping markets open and predictable would be critical.

    Source: reuters.com

  • Why orange juice prices are soaring on global markets

    The future price of orange juice has spiked by more than 20% this month as consumers look for healthy products during the Coronavirus pandemic.

    While demand has risen, supply has been hit as producers struggle to export goods due to transport restrictions.

    This has caused a rise in the so-called “futures” price of orange juice, which indicate its cost for delivery in the coming months.

    Orange juice futures are the best performing asset so far this year.

    “The Covid-19 outbreaks are hitting both the supply and demand for orange juice. The immune-boosting properties are the demand side attraction while there are simply not enough tanker spaces with airlines not flying to bring the product to markets,” said Stephen Innes, Chief Global Market Strategist at broker AxiCorp.

    On the supply side, there are also issues with not having enough workers as plantations introduce restrictions such as social distancing. “Traders are wondering if workers are around to man the plants here in Florida and in Brazil,” said Jack Scoville at trading firm Price Futures Group in the US.

    Orange juice futures have seen their biggest monthly gain since October 2015, at a time when global stock markets are being battered. In London, the FTSE 100 index is down more than 13% in the last month, while on Wall Street the Dow Jones Industrial Average has fallen more than 16%.

    Talking about whether the spike in orange juice futures prices will mean higher prices for orange juice in stores, Mr. Innes added: “The pass-on effect will be quick as orange juice producers pass the price rises onto to supermarkets and other buyers”.

    Most commodities have a “future” price, which can be traded on an exchange, such as the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Futures contracts help companies lock into a fixed price in the future to protect them from potential spikes in prices.

    Futures contracts are common for soft commodities like oranges and wheat which are vulnerable to sudden price rises due to bad harvests and natural disasters.

    Source: bbc.com