TIG Post

Tag: Russian private military

  • Mercenaries must pledge loyalty to Russia – Putin

    Mercenaries must pledge loyalty to Russia – Putin

    President Vladimir Putin is seeking allegiance from all members of Wagner and similar Russian private military organizations.

    The rule covers people who are involved in military activities in Ukraine, helping the army and serving in territorial defense groups.

    He made the decision official on Friday and it started right away.

    It happens two days after the leaders of Wagner were believed to have died in a plane accident.

    According to Natia Seskuria, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute, Putin wants to have more control over Wagner so that he can prevent any future crises. This means that Putin is becoming more cautious and avoiding taking risks.

    The order is given when Wagner hired soldiers don’t have a clear person in charge, because a plane that was believed to be carrying Yevgeny Prigozhin and other leaders crashed on Wednesday, causing the death of all 10 people on board.

    The decree says that the oath is important to strengthen the values and beliefs that protect Russia. The oath includes a promise to follow the orders of leaders and commanders.

    Petro Burkovskyi, who works for a think tank in Ukraine, told the BBC that the message hidden in the text is telling the military intelligence to locate and punish Wagner fighters.

    And he also suggests that it is a clear signal to the fighters.

    In the past, they promised to follow the rules, just like many other armies do. This is a message for Wagner fighters: either promise to be loyal and keep your weapons, or give up your weapons. “Do as you’re told, or you’ll be sent to jail. ”

    A few weeks before Prigozhin’s uprising didn’t work in June, the Russian defense ministry told groups of hired soldiers they had until July 1st to agree and sign contracts to join the army.

    Prigozhin didn’t want his Wagner Group to work for the ministry, so he didn’t sign.

    Mr Putin supported the ministry’s contract plan , which was the first public setback for his long-time ally Prigozhin.

    What will happen to the Wagner fighters if they don’t have a clear leader.

    Burkovskyi believes that because they have been trained and have a lot of experience in fighting, they are valuable resources for the Russian army.

    Most of them are military professionals, and their main focus is their career rather than their beliefs or ideology.

    “They selected Wagner because they received preferential treatment from Wagner, without dealing with the complex systems of the large Russian military force. ” If they receive special treatment because of Putin’s instructions, I don’t think they worry about where they will fight, who they will fight, and who they are fighting for.

    Ms Seskuria thinks that people who support Prigozhin but refuse to take the oath could cause problems in the future.

    “I believe the message is very straightforward: if you don’t obey the rules, you’ll face consequences like Prigozhin,” she states.

    In that way, it will be effective for a short amount of time. But, Prigozhin had people who supported him in Wagner and this could cause issues for Putin in the future.

    On Saturday morning, there were drone attacks in Moscow and Belgorod regions. The drones were successfully stopped by the air defense systems, as stated by Russian officials.

    No one was hurt or injured, and nothing was broken or harmed. Flights at Moscow’s three main airports were temporarily stopped for a few hours.

    In the area next to Ukraine called Belgorod, four people got hurt because of the attack, according to Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov.

    Moscow said Ukraine was responsible for the shooting and drone attacks. Kyiv has not said anything yet, as they rarely admit to being responsible for the attacks in Russia.

    In Ukraine, two people died and one person got injured when Russia attacked a village close to the northeast town of Kupiansk. The governor of Kharkiv’s region said that a café was also hit during the attack.

  • Mysterious Russian military firms compete for control

    Mysterious Russian military firms compete for control

    A covert network of Russian private military contractors is operating in Ukraine amid the repercussions of the Wagner group uprising.

    Although the militias are less well-known than Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries, they do contain battle-tested soldiers and a neo-Nazi-led organisation.

    They are broadly referred to as private military contractors (PMCs), although their relationships with Russia’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) are murky.

    One of the groups, Patriot, is said to have been formed as a counter-balance to Wagner under the auspices of the defence minister Sergei Shoigu, who has been the target of angry video tirades by Prigozhin.

    The formation was sanctioned by the US in April 23, 2023, with the Department of the Treasury’s listing stating that the entity was established in 2018 and is engaged in ‘defence activities’. 

    However, Patriot may be a generic term for a number of clandestine groups and individuals working in a ‘grey zone’ outside of Russia’s conventional military framework. The group, whose logo shows a fierce dog with red eyes, is among 25 entities active in Ukraine from the outset of Moscow’s aggression in 2014 to the present, according to the Molfar OSINT agency.

    Their stock is now said to be increasing in the wake of the Wagner group’s aborted mutiny last weekend, with the reach of the various formations stretching across Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa.

    A more notorious outfit, Rusich, is described as a ‘sabotage and assault reconnaissance group’ by an account on the Russian social media channel VKontakte. The group’s logo incorporates a Slavic symbol with neo-Nazi connotations and it has allegedly committed war crimes in Ukraine.

  • Putin cannot just ‘liquidate’ leaders of Wagner rebellion

    Putin cannot just ‘liquidate’ leaders of Wagner rebellion

    An authority on Russian private military contractors has suggested that Vladimir Putin cannot just “kill his way out” of his conflict with the rebellious Wagner group.

    Yevgeny Prigozhin, the militia’s head, recently abandoned an advance on Moscow, and the president is attempting to quell his disobedience.

    Prigozhin has been expelled to Belarus, and his old ally has threatened retaliation against the Wagner officials who are to blame.

    But Alec Bertina, an all-source analyst at the Grey Dynamics private intelligence firm, said that the financier and his commanders still exert significant influence.

    Assassinations and mysterious deaths routinely befall high-profile Russians who fall out of favour with the Kremlin, but this option would cause more problems than it would solve for Putin, Bertina told Metro.co.uk. 

    Prigozhin’s forces captured the city of Rostov-on-Don, a key Russian military centre, before a Wagner convoy headed north in the biggest challenge to Putin in more than 20 years.

    Yevgeny Prigozhin makes a speech af the HQ of Russia’s southern military district in Rostov-on-Don (Picture: Wagner/Anadolu Agency via Getty)

    ‘Vladimir Putin knows he cannot simply kill his way out of this situation by liquidating Prigozhin and the Wagner leadership,’ Bertina said. 

    ‘There is a real mess for everyone in the Kremlin to clean up.   

    ‘This was very well planned and the question remains about the people who masterminded this with Prigozhin. 

    ‘They were seemingly able to come up with a significant operation involving the seizure of the southern military command of Rostov, an important command and control node.  

    ‘For the MoD to kill its way out of the problem they would need to liquidate and reconstitute those Wagner units, which is resource-intensive at a time when they are short of capable officers.’ 

    Speaking from the Kremlin in a pre-recorded televised address yesterday evening, Putin said that those involved in the ‘criminal activity’ would be brought to justice. He is now inviting the mercenaries to sign over to Russia’s Ministry of Defence, but it remains to be seen if the battle-hardened fighters are prepared to abandon Prigozhin, who is reportedly staying at a hotel in Minsk, the Belarusian capital.

    ‘A lot of the Wagner operators will be upset at Prigozhin for ending this, as almost every combat element that has served in Ukraine has some animosity towards the MoD,’ Bertina said.   

    ‘There is a balance between ensuring loyalty in your forces and not taking cut-throat measures that will backfire and make Russia look worse and more incapable than it already is. Putin does not have unity of command; he is a wartime leader who can’t control his men and has been left informationally vulnerable with Ukraine compelling Russian soldiers to surrender rather than fight for a regime on its last legs. In Russia, the elites are panicked and the existing discontent among the oligarchs will only grow.’ 

    Prigozhin had repeatedly launched blistering video attacks on Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu and army chief Valery Gerasimov for failing to provide his mercenaries with enough ammunition during the bloody fight for the Ukrainian town of Bakhmut.

    On Friday, he accused the Russian Ministry of Defence of launching a missile attack on one of his camps, before seizing Rostov, headquarters of Russia’s southern military district, the following morning. His units then advanced within 125 miles (200km) of Moscow.

    Putin said the ‘rebellion’ was a ‘stab in the back’ before his former chef stood his troops down and apparently agreed to go into exile under a deal brokered via Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko. 

    Wagner, along with all Russian private military companies, now has until July 1 to sign a contract bringing the group under the auspices of the Russian Ministry of Defence. 

    In his speech, Putin tried to persuade the militia’s estimated 50,000 fighters and leaders in Ukraine to come under the ministry’s command. The other stated options were to retire and go home or to go to Belarus.

    The military’s supreme commander also praised Wagner commanders, which was framed by the US Institute for the Study of War as ‘likely critical’ to retaining them and maintaining the group’s effectiveness.

    The research organisation said: ‘‘The future of the Wagner Group is unclear, but it will likely not include Yevgeny Prigozhin and may not continue to exist as a distinct or unitary entity.’ 

    Putin further spoke at a speech in a Kremlin square today, praising the country’s military and law enforcement, who he said had ‘essentially prevented a civil war’.

    However Bertina, a researcher on Russian non-traditional security actors, is sceptical about the president’s attempts to shore up his power.  

    ‘One of Russia’s most effective forces will now have to undergo some element of reconstitution and possible liquidation of its leadership, which will be expensive as you don’t build up an organisation like Wagner overnight,’ he said.  

    ‘Putin can still say he’s in power but it’s not much to go on, with even people on the pro-war side viewing their president as pathetic and questioning if he can lead effectively. 

    ‘While there is no longer any kinetic conflict, this is far from finished, there are still difficulties getting Wagnerites to subordinate to the Ministry of Defence, and there is a lot of uncertainty about what the actual deal struck between Prigozhin and the Kremlin was.

    ‘The external statements put out by the Kremlin cannot be taken as indicative of what the deals actually contain.’ 

    The Kremlin has said that Wagner is handing over its heavy weapons to the conventional military, but questions remain over its lucrative sphere of operations in Africa and its fighters’ willingness to join regular units.

    ‘Some Wagner elements might, while other elements will find it very hard to do,’ Bertina said. ‘While another kinetic confrontation is hard to see, the Wagnerites going to the front will be meeting their force counterparts who will be viewing them with suspicion and there will be a tension and uneasy relationship that might have a significant impact on the battlefield. 

    ‘They went to Wagner to get paid more and also because they were led by a command structure outside of the Ministry of Defence, and that’s been taken away from them.’ 

    In an 11-minute audio address released yesterday, Prigozhin said no one had agreed to sign a contract with the defence ministry and his firm was due to cease existence on the contract deadline day.  

    He portrayed his decision to turn his heavily armed convoy around on the road to Moscow as a move to avoid ‘shedding Russian blood’, with his actions borne of anger directed at the defence ministry rather than being an attempt to overthrow the government.  

    Rory Stewart, an independent MP and former House of Commons Defence Committee chair, speculated that Prigozhin had acted first because his ‘back was against the wall’ after an apparent ‘bungled attempt’ by the FSB, the KGB’s successor, to abduct him.

    Bertina said: ‘Prigozhin was quite willing to take risks, and they were dangerous risks, but I’m not sure he was as cornered as some would suggest. It’s difficult to be certain about, but who knows?’

    On the battlefield, Ukrainian Airborne forces ‘highly likely’ recaptured one of the first areas of territory occupied by Russia since 2014, according to the UK Ministry of Defence.  The ‘small advances’ were made eastwards from the village of Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk region, according to the intelligence update this morning.