TIG Post

Tag: Goldman Sachs

  • Goldman Sachs predicts eased inflation by 2025

    Goldman Sachs predicts eased inflation by 2025

    Global economic growth in 2025 is expected to be marked by rebalanced labor markets and easing inflation, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

    Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, Jan Hatzius, highlighted in the report Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs that “global labor markets have rebalanced.”

    He further noted, “Inflation has continued to trend down and is now within striking distance of central bank targets. And most central banks are well into the process of cutting interest rates back to more normal levels.”

    The global economy is projected to grow by 2.7% in 2025, matching the estimated rate for 2024 and slightly exceeding the consensus forecast from Bloomberg. The United States is expected to lead developed markets with a GDP growth of 2.5%, significantly higher than the consensus of 1.9%.

    In contrast, the euro area’s economy is predicted to expand by only 0.8%, falling short of the 1.2% consensus projection, as it grapples with anticipated tariffs from the Trump administration.

    China and India, two of the world’s fastest-growing economies, are forecasted to record GDP growth rates of 4.0% and 6.7%, respectively, maintaining their strong performance in the global landscape.

    The report also highlights potential policy shifts under the re-election of US President Donald Trump, including “higher tariffs on China and on imported cars, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing.” Hatzius cautioned about the risks associated with such measures, stating, “The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard.”

    Despite these challenges, Goldman Sachs anticipates a solid year of economic progress, supported by a steady recovery in global labor markets and central bank efforts to stabilize inflation.

  • Global GDP growth rate predicted to reach 2.7% in 2025 – Goldman Sachs

    Global GDP growth rate predicted to reach 2.7% in 2025 – Goldman Sachs

    Goldman Sachs Research anticipates steady global economic growth in 2025, projecting a 2.7% expansion in worldwide GDP, slightly above the Bloomberg consensus and consistent with 2024 estimates.

    The forecast highlights stronger-than-expected performance in the United States, where GDP is expected to grow by 2.5%, surpassing the consensus of 1.9%.

    Meanwhile, the euro area is predicted to see slower growth at 0.8%, falling short of the consensus expectation of 1.2%, amid potential trade challenges linked to new tariffs from the Trump administration.

    In Asia, China’s economy is set to grow by 4.0%, while India is poised for an impressive 6.7% GDP increase, further solidifying its status as one of the fastest-growing major economies.

    “Global labor markets have rebalanced,” Goldman Sachs Research Chief Economist Jan Hatzius wrote in the team’s report, which is titled “Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs.”

    “Inflation has continued to trend down and is now within striking distance of central bank targets,” Hatzius said. “And most central banks are well into the process of cutting interest rates back to more normal levels.”

    US, the world’s largest economy is expected to grow faster than other developed-market countries for the third year in a row. The re-election of US President Donald Trump is predicted to result in higher tariffs on China and on imported cars, much lower immigration, some fresh tax cuts, and regulatory easing.

    “The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard,” Hatzius added.

  • Report shows AI could take over 300 million jobs

    Report shows AI could take over 300 million jobs

    According to a report by investment bank Goldman Sachs, artificial intelligence (AI) might replace the equivalent of 300 million full-time jobs.

    That might result in a quarter of work duties in the US and Europe being replaced, but it might also create new jobs and boost productivity.

    Also, it may eventually result in a 7% annual rise in the value of all goods and services produced globally.

    The report calls generative AI “a major advancement” since it can produce content that is indistinguishable from human-produced stuff.

    The government is keen to promote investment in AI in the UK, which it says will “ultimately drive productivity across the economy”, and has tried to reassure the public about its impact.

    “We want to make sure that AI is complementing the way we work in the UK, not disrupting it – making our jobs better, rather than taking them away,” Technology Secretary Michelle Donelan told the Sun.

    The report notes AI’s impact will vary across different sectors – 46% of tasks in administrative and 44% in legal professions could be automated but only 6% in construction 4% in maintenance, it says.

    According to research cited by the report, 60% of workers are in occupations that did not exist in 1940.

    But other research suggests technological change since the 1980s has displaced workers faster than it has created jobs.

    And if generative AI is like previous information-technology advances, the report concludes, it could reduce employment in the near term.

    The long-term impact of AI, however, was highly uncertain, chief executive of the Resolution Foundation think tank Torsten Bell told BBC News, “so all firm predictions should be taken with a very large pinch of salt”.

    “We do not know how the technology will evolve or how firms will integrate it into how they work,” he said.

    “That’s not to say that AI won’t disrupt the way we work – but we should focus too on the potential living-standards gains from higher-productivity work and cheaper-to-run services, as well as the risk of falling behind if other firms and economies better adapt to technological change.”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBX_lI822P4
  • Goldman Sachs staff in Asia laid off as global job-cuts begins

    Goldman Sachs staff in Asia laid off as global job-cuts begins

    A major US investment bank is embarking on a massive cost-cutting drive that will result in the loss of thousands of jobs.

    Goldman Sachs employees are waiting to hear whether they will keep their jobs as the US investment bank embarks on a massive cost-cutting drive that could result in thousands of layoffs from its 49,000-strong global workforce.

    The long-anticipated job cuts at the Wall Street titan are expected to be the largest since the financial crisis, affecting most of the bank’s major divisions, with its under-fire investment banking arm facing the deepest cuts, a source told Reuters this month.

    A little more than 3,000 employees will be let go on January 9, according to an unnamed source.

    The cuts began in Asia on Wednesday, where Goldman completed cutting back its private wealth management unit and let go of 11 private bank staff in its Hong Kong and Singapore offices, a source with knowledge of the matter said.

    About eight staff were also laid off in Goldman’s research department in Hong Kong, the source added, with layoffs ongoing in the investment bank and other divisions.

    Goldman’s redundancy plans will be followed by a broader spending review taking in corporate travel and expenses, the Financial Times reported on Wednesday, as it counts the costs of a huge slowdown in corporate dealmaking and a slump in capital markets activity since the war in Ukraine.

    Goldman Sachs declined to comment.

    Goldman had 49,100 employees at the end of the third quarter in 2022, after adding significant numbers of staff during the coronavirus pandemic.

    The lender is also slashing its annual bonus payments this year to reflect the depressed market conditions, with payouts expected to fall by about 40 percent.

    Global investment banking fees nearly halved in 2022, with $77bn earned by the banks, down from $132.3bn one year earlier, Dealogic data showed.

    Banks struck $517bn worth of equity capital markets (ECM) transactions by late December 2022, the lowest level since the early 2000s and a 66 percent drop from 2021’s bonanza, according to Dealogic.

    Source: Aljazeera.com

  • Goldman Sachs: Pay bias lawsuit reveals allegations of sexual assault

    According to recently made public court documents, women at Goldman Sachs alleged 75 instances of sexual assault and harassment involving top bankers between 2000 and 2011, including rape.

    The allegations are contained in a New York class-action complaint accusing the banking behemoth of discriminating against women’s compensation and promotion.

    The suit, which now represents roughly 1,400 women, is set for trial in June.

    Goldman has been fighting the case since 2010 and denies claims of bias.

    It said many of the complaints were two decades old and had been “presented selectively, inaccurately and are incomplete”.

    “The plaintiffs’ presentation of the complaints does not reflect reality at Goldman Sachs,” a spokesperson said. “Discrimination, harassment and mistreatment in any form are unacceptable at Goldman Sachs, and when identified, swift action, including termination, is taken. Out of respect for the persons involved, we are not going to comment on the individual complaints.”

    Cristina Chen-Oster, a former vice president who worked for the bank from 1997 to 2005 and was one of the three women who filed the initial complaint, said she was looking forward to sharing her experience at trial.

    Cristina Chen-Oster
    IMAGE SOURCE,CRISTINA CHEN-OSTER Image caption, Cristina Chen-Oster was one of three women who filed the original complaint

    “I hope this case will help to finally break the glass ceiling for women on Wall Street and set a precedent for other industries where gender discrimination is pervasive,” she said. “We need to bring transparency to practices that previously seemed untouchable.”

    The lawsuit says women at Goldman were paid and promoted less, as a result of a pattern of discriminatory practices, including a “boys’ club” work culture that permitted the sexualisation of female staff.

    Goldman is accused of tolerating managers who engage in sexual harassment, such as one who rang a bell every time a woman entered the floor. He was later promoted to managing director, according to the complaint.

    The incidents of alleged sexual assault reported to the firm included a female employee who claimed she was drugged and raped after a company baseball game.

    Another female employee alleged that a male manager took her to an abandoned floor and propositioned her for sex; he later called to say he was “masturbating to the sound of her voice”, the complaint says.

    The complaint says Goldman retaliated against women who complained about the issue, as well as those who went on maternity leave.

    In Ms Chen-Oster’s experience, outlined in the initial complaint, she describes having a married male colleague pin her “against a wall, kissing and groping her” after a company dinner.

    She alleges that she was consistently paid less and denied opportunities, noting that Goldman removed responsibilities after she went on maternity leave and assigned her a seat among female support staff.

    “The record overwhelmingly demonstrates that year after year Goldman continues to treat women as second-class employees, permitting a culture of fear and retaliation to flourish rather than fixing known, systemic gender bias,” the lawsuit alleges.

    Lawyers are asking the court to order reinstatement or damages for the women, who according to the suit were paid 20% less than their male counterparts if they were vice presidents, while female associates earned 8% less.