Author: Chris Kodo

During election campaigns, voters in democratic countries will often hear that their nation is at a crucial turning point.

But right now in Poland, the old saying about elections being predictable is very true.

The European Union’s fifth-largest country will have an important election on Sunday, October 15. The outcome of this election will have a significant impact on the EU, Ukraine, and the United States.

In simple terms, the upcoming vote next weekend could allow the ruling Law and Justice party to stay in power for a third term. Critics are concerned that this could result in significant changes to the country’s institutions, which may not support liberal principles.

However, the election is very close. A group of parties against the current government has a real chance of winning, but if the outcome is uncertain, it could give an opportunity for the far right to benefit.

Here is the information you should know.

Poland is having an election on October 15 to choose its new parliament. PiS, the party currently in power with the help of some smaller populist parties, wants to win for the third time in a row and become the next government. A group of moderate parties, led by Donald Tusk, who used to be Poland’s prime minister and the former president of the European Council, are against it.

With only a few days left in the campaign, there are still many different results that could happen.

Surveys show that the PiS party is slightly ahead of Tusk’s Civic Coalition in the polls. However, this lead is not significant, which means that it is unlikely for any group to win a complete majority in Poland’s lower house, the Sejm. If that happens, it would begin a series of discussions for several days after the vote, where the main party will try to form a group of parties to work together and be in charge.

People are wondering if the Confederation, a small far-right party, would join forces with PiS if they have a lot of power after the election. The leaders of the Confederation have said that they don’t want to make any agreements.

In Polish politics, people have always fought with each other and attacked each other personally. But no matter how you look at it, this year’s campaign has been very mean.

PiS, a political party, has been accused of blaming migrants and LGBTQ people in order to create conflict before past elections. They have continuously tried to depict Tusk as a pawn of Brussels and Berlin. The government started an investigation earlier this year called “Russian influence” which caused a lot of disagreement both in our country and overseas. Many people thought it was an attempt to unfairly go after the opposition leader.

Public media, which is mostly influenced by PiS, has been echoing many of the same ideas. Tusk is trying to fight against corruption and authoritarianism in Poland and sees his run as the only opportunity to save the country.

Jacek Kucharczyk, the president of the Institute of Public Affairs in Warsaw, said to CNN that people are overreacting and being very scared, thinking that this situation will ruin Poland.

The prime minister responded to Zelensky’s insults towards Poles by saying that he should never insult them again.

Both sides in this clash have different descriptions of what is good and evil. One side believes in things like democracy, the rule of law, and Western values. The other side believes in things like nationalism, Catholicism, and sovereignty. That’s what Kucharczyk said.

Many voters have been most worried about high prices and the difficulty of affording basic needs. Also, concerns about safety have been important during the campaign. Last month, there were reports that Polish officials were accused of being part of a scandal where money was exchanged for visas. This has made it difficult for PiS lawmakers to show that they are strong in protecting the country’s borders.
Poland has changed a lot.

Poland has recently become less liberal under the rule of PiS for the past eight years. Because of this, the country has lost support from western nations who used to look up to it as a model of democracy after the Soviet era. This has led to increased tensions before the upcoming vote next week.

People who don’t agree with the government say that if they get a third term, they will have more control over the courts, the media, democratic organizations, and the rights of women and minority groups.

Kucharczyk said to CNN that the upcoming election is seen as the final opportunity to stop the decline of democracy, using democratic methods. The worry is that if PiS stays in charge for four more years, they will further develop the authoritarian system they have been creating for the past eight years.

The ruling party has made big changes to the judiciary system, allowing the government to have more control over who gets important roles. In June, the highest court of the EU said that Poland’s changes to its legal system were against the laws of the alliance. They told Poland to make changes or pay a lot of money.

Piotr Buras, leader of the ECFR in Warsaw, said it was a huge change for the institution. “This is a significant change towards a non-democratic government while pretending to be democratic. ”

PiS said their changes were necessary to update Poland’s institutions and remove judges previously appointed during the time when Poland was ruled by communists. But the people who disagree with the party say that it is trying to be like Hungary, which has been criticized for becoming more controlling and powerful, just like Brussels.

According to Buras, something very unusual may happen in European democracy after this election. It could be an attempt to undo or lessen the influence of liberalism.

“Once upon a time, Poland was the top student in the class compared to other countries in the EU,” explained Kucharczyk. He was talking about the period after the Soviet era when Warsaw rapidly developed as a successful, young democracy with a thriving free-market system.

However, there have been significant changes over the last ten years. Poland has been stuck in a prolonged conflict with the European Union. Brussels has stopped giving money and sued Warsaw because they are trying to make the law and courts less strong and independent. In response, Poland’s government has been attacking the institution, while saying that Polish freedom is more important than working with other countries.

“The ruling party is becoming more unfriendly towards the EU and has been having worse relationships with their neighbors, particularly Germany,” said Dariusz Stola, a historian at the Institute of Political Studies of the Polish Academy of Sciences, in an interview with CNN.

However, Poland still has a strong and influential position in Europe. The outcome of this month’s vote has the potential to significantly change the current situation. Poland joined the EU in 2004 and most Polish people still really like being a part of it. The opposition has picked Tusk, who is a very important person in European politics, to lead their campaign.

Poland received a lot of unexpected support and goodwill in Europe for how it reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year. Moscow’s aggressive actions have proven that Poland’s long-standing concerns about Russia’s intentions and Europe’s dependence on Russian energy were actually valid. In the past, these concerns were often dismissed in the West as outdated complaints from a previous time.

This month’s election will help decide if Warsaw wants to improve its relationship with Brussels and take a major role in dealing with Russia, or if the ongoing disagreement between the two sides gets worse.

“Poland is an important country in Europe. It shares a border with Ukraine, has a large army, spends a lot of money on its military, and plays a crucial role in supporting Ukraine,” explained Stola. “What occurs in Poland in the next few years will have a big impact on all of Europe. ”

Kyiv and Washington are keeping an eye on

Poland’s election is important to both its neighbors in the west and the east. The relationship between Warsaw and Kyiv has become more tense recently.

“According to Buras, Poland’s moral superiority in foreign policy over the past year and a half has been based on their support for Ukraine. ” Right now, the picture has big problems.

The Polish government has been speaking strongly and openly against Ukraine. They are concerned about Ukrainian grain being imported into Poland, which they believe will harm Polish farmers. The government is also upset about Ukraine getting weapons from Western countries and trying to join NATO and the EU.

This year, old anger and resentment over a mass killing by Ukrainian nationalists during World War II have come up again. This has added to the existing tensions that had calmed down after Russia invaded.

A new party called the Confederation has been causing a change. They don’t like that Ukraine refugees in Poland are getting money to help them. This year, the group has received more support in the areas where PiS is popular in the countryside. As a result, government officials have started talking more harshly towards Kyiv.

Kucharczyk said that one possible result could be a partnership between PiS and Confederation, which would have negative effects on Polish-Ukrainian relations.

It is hard to think of a situation where Poland stops Western weapons going through its land to Ukraine, and Poland’s strong disagreement with Russia will always be an important part of how it sees the world.

However, experts warn that the relationship between Warsaw and Kyiv could worsen if Warsaw reduces its financial and military assistance after the election.

“Poland really wants to help Ukraine a lot,” Kucharczyk said. “But the harm caused during the election campaign will persist, leading Ukrainians to increasingly seek support from Berlin and Washington, rather than Warsaw. ”